EXPIRY TRADE & MAY PERFORMANCE

We picked today 26500 CE around 55 and our initial target was 110. But a message was sent to members previous day to wait till 3.20 pm and the risk is on only 2 lots. Last week it was 25800 CE which moved from 13.50 to 200. This week 26500 CE from  55 to 550. 

Our trade was explained technically and all members were aware as to how we pick expiry call now. No blind game. 

This month was not that much good for nifty. From last month close of 10783 it just moved by 160 points and came down sharp to 10408 and shown a good recovery during the last week of the month. Overall it closed below April month close but with a positive outlook for June. 

Bank Nifty has risen 1400 points from previous month to close at 26953. This has rather propelled nifty to move in the last minutes of trade today. 

Still nifty is not out of  woods. It has to cross 10787 which was the low established on election results day. A close above this shall take nifty to 10881.  If nifty is able to close above 10881 on a daily basis then surpassing all time high of 11185 is very much on the cards.

But we must wait and watch what is in store for us in June!!

Happy Trading!!

NIFTY TREND

Nifty today opened gap down and after remaining in the lower territory for an hour it recovered completely  and ended up with a minor loss over previous day. If Nifty spot is able to sustain above 10661, then we can see a high of 10717 today. If nifty breaks 10585, there are chances of touching 10550/35.

Bank Nifty may range is 26050-26520. There could be a big move with in this range which normally happens on monthly expiry. But maximum up or down side is capped with in this range.  

Specific strike  price, SL and target on bank nifty expiry given to members on board.

Happy trading!!

NIFTY TREND

Nifty today  closed 10618 losing  its critical support at 10673. What ever the  trend set during the last three days have been negated and nifty is heading for a fall. This is a typical expiry week  move whereby the options find wild moves due to volatility.

I have indicated the likely top outs of bank nifty two days back. Just check and you will be surprised to see that the reversal  has happened exactly. 

Clue for making good profits:  Watch PE of June and if expiry is below 10600, you must invest  in PE in June and relax. Specific strike price, entry, exit, SL are given to members on board.

Happy Trading!!

NIFTY TREND

Friday saw Nifty futures negating all the Intra week losses and closed at 10608.50, very near to previous week close of 10608.  This indicates the reversal of  trend. Next challenge for nifty is to regain the   10645 level. A close above this should  see nifty moving towards 10787. 10700 CE has witnessed reduction in OI more than 1 Million. Premium has risen sharply  from 4.50 to 17.35 compelling the Call writers to close the position. 10600  PEs have seen substantial addition in OI over 1.7 Million.  It is crystal clear that   nifty is heading towards north direction and any dip is a buy till expiry. 

Bank Nifty futures also posted smart gain on a weekly basis and closed at 26240 ( Previous week Close 25920).  Next target for BNF is 26430/26590. It is likely to top out at this level. 

Alert: Do not short CEs at this juncture. 

NIFTY TREND

Both Nifty and bank nifty made handsome gains today. The close was bullish. It has negated all bearish sentiments prevailed from Monday on wards. The long bullish candle confirms the worst is over. 

Chances are bright for Nifty futures to revisit 10673 before this expiry if it crosses 10564 hurdle.

On Bank nifty it can see 26565 before this expiry.

Today we picked 25800 CE at 13.50 and all our targets met. I saw everyone smiling when it hit 193 which was my last target. Every move was  explained technically and  all members were very much delighted to  see the   move giving due respect to technical.

Happy trading!!

NIFTY TREND

Today nifty futures has lost control and opened below 10530. Once 10498  was breached there was a big slide. Even if there is recovery,  we can see nifty futures touching 10300 very soon.

Where as bank nifty has not entered in to sell zone. As long as bank nifty  has not broken 25225, one should remain cautious.

Weekly expiry calls  have been given to members on board. 

NIFTY TREND

After 6 weeks of up trend,  nifty futures has closed negative on Friday closing below previous week low of 10645. Technically  nifty futures has to shed another 50-60 points before resuming  its uptrend. Ideally 10530 we an expect a pull back. 

Bank Nifty futures is able to hold its head  above 25780. A daily close below this number will see a sharp correction up to 25525.

Till  expiry we cannot expect any major fall as Nifty could manage to move above 10650/700. It is prudent to wait till expiry and then take position for positional trade.

NIFTY TREND

Nifty futures closed  at 10693 and 10640 is the low point of the month. The reverse cycle gets completed after touching 10640. One should not expect any vertical fall in nifty at least till expiry as the price action and Put writing may not allow a steep fall. 

Keep 10640 as target and exit from shorts. Bank Nifty may dip up to 25740.

Take positions keeping in mind where the nifty would end up  in this monthly expiry which is just 9 sessions away from today. 

Yesterday we have rightly predicted BN spot close around 26050 and it ended at 26072. We have entered 26100 PE at 10 and it   hit all our targets. It was a pure technical trade and  no blind game.

Happy trading!!

NIFTY TREND

Nifty futures closed with a negative bias for the third day in this week indicating indecisiveness in the market.  This probably lead to  nifty futures reaching a low of 10640 before resuming any uptrend.  Yesterday it has closed at 10764, 20 points below April month close. This signifies nifty shying away from monthly high. Reaching 10640 is very much on the cards. 

Bank Nifty spot likely to settle near 26050 today  as the fall from 26400 to 26200 clearly signals that all calls above  26400 would go worthless.  The unwinding of Puts above 26400 yesterday arrests any up move. 

Nifty range : 10640-10800.

Bank Nifty range :  26050-26375

Happy Trading!

NIFTY TREND

Nifty surpassed  10900 in the initial hours of trade and there after slipped from there indicating the top is almost over. 

Bank nifty also closed below 26500, indicating the exhaustiveness and too much of stretching in the index there by got nullified with a flat close.

In Gujarat election results, we saw index touching low  and climbing up. In Karnataka elections, we are witnessing exactly the opposite.  Index kissing the top and plummeting. So there could be much more down side in the offing.  Global cues are also  in support of down trend.

Stay away  if you are long.

Nifty range - 10670-820

Bank Nifty - 26280-26480

EVENT DAY

Today is the most waited day for all the big parties looking to stake claim for forming government in Karnataka. It is rather a show of strength and a litmus test  for both the parties.

Nifty and BNF closed almost flat. More   reactions  could come only during the market hours depending on the outcome of results.

While the yesterday close is not much alarming,  yet if nifty spot slips 10774 it may further  slide down to 10566/462 levels as the outcome today gives jittery into the market.

Trade with caution as profits you see might  be  a mirage if you are over greedy.

NIFTY TREND

Nifty has crossed 10784 decisively and closed at 10806. Bank nifty gaining substantially and closed above 25400 indicates further momentum upwards.

It  all looks like Nifty likely to touch 10860 and BNF 26600 and it is  necessary to be extremely cautious at this point.

Crude oil prices soaring   high, Rupee weakening against Dollar are the initial signs of weakness. Especially crude prices is a big worry for US Market as of now.

Be ready for a time bound correction! Be light in your long positions. Book partial profits.  Wait for right time to enter in to PEs.

Happy Trading!

WEEKLY EXPIRY

This weekly expiry should end on a higher note and there could be no relief to those who short Bank Nifty.

For the moment trend is up.

Today our price level for entry in to 26100  CE was perfect at 45/-  It doubled from there.  Only few could get benefited as we waited for a better price on the downside.

Happy trading.

NIFTY TREND

Nifty Spot  today closed 5 points down @ 10718.  Bank Nifty Spot closed at 26090, 190 points up from previous close.

It is very strange to see main component of  nifty moving up by 190 points still nifty has not gained anything out of the move. Of course, the moves what we see are accidental; but if we look closely inside, it is a deliberate attempt to move few scrips without paring gains to main index.

This means CEs have not made any gains today. Coming days are going to be crucial and it is prudent to trade with short term perspective.

NIFTY TREND

Today Nifty futures climbed high and recouped all the losses made in the last three sessions there forming a big green candle.

The most expected happened. On Friday, BNF closed with an uptrend indicating further momentum. Now Nifty has to follow bank nifty to stay above 10700 once again in this month.

It is expected to touch 10784 again. A close above this  will lead to 10859.

Both the index are in buy mode. 

Today we picked 25900 CE at 72 for a target of 92.80/116. The second target was short by Re  1.00 as the CE went up to 115 before closing  at 110.

Hind Petro PE 270PE bought at 3.80 hit our target 5.00.

Trend is up. It is strange to see nifty shedding 180  points again climbing up. Whether bull run will last till Karnataka elections or may fizzle out?

No point in worrying about it. We go by trend.  Happy Trading!!

GO BY NUMBERS.. NO ASSUMPTIONS.. NO NEWS

Most of the  people see TV for news and go with some assumptions to take a position. In my opinion, if you trade based on news or assumptions, most likely you will end up with a loss. 

Technical levels, price action and timing the buy or sell are vital in derivative segment. Especially in Options timing plays a vital role.

We go by levels on index and also try to be   more precise on options segment. We do not give importance to Dow or local news. Because the technical levels suggest happening of any such event beforehand.  This will be explained well with the help of  scrip next week. You must see it to believe!

Anyone interested in taking up trading for long term gains may reach me on mail:

narayanansrirangam@gmail.com

Start learning technical. Trade with confidence. Invest small amount. Set goal for 6-12 months.

NIFTY TREND

After 5 weeks of up trend, nifty closed negative on Friday ending  the long bullish trend. Whereas bank nifty has not shown any  tiredness since in has snapped uptrend in the mid of April and again started showing bullishness and closed positive on Friday.

Both the index are in opposite direction!  Who is going to follow whom? One  cannot predict and we have to wait and watch the moves. Most probably an up move in bank nifty is not ruled out as the positiveness shown in the last three hours on Friday indicates further momentum in BNF.  There is no guess work or assumption. The logic is derived out of price action of  BNF. 

Coming week could again be a tug of war between bulls and bears, where we can expect a gain of 50-70 points in nifty in view of bank nifty heading for a  further rally.

Nifty spot  range for the week 10450-670.  Bank Nifty spot range for the week 25100-25890.

Trade  with caution and with strict stop  loss as we are very close to the peak levels.  

BNF WEEKLY EXPIRY

Today we have identified 25600 CE is going to rock  immediately after market opened.  The logic was simple and it doubled from Rs 20 when the PE  broke 42.50 being the weekly low. Our members made money. 

That was the only most useful trade which happened in BNF based on technical today.

We do jackpot only based on technical and no assumptions and blind games.

NIFTY TREND

Nifty spot clinched the high in the opening bell itself and there was an attempt to reach the  day high made  in the afternoon, but could not sustain high and closed at 10718. If nifty close below 10670 on a weekly basis, you can go short in futures SL at 10670 for  a minimum target of 150 points. 

As of now all targets have been achieved by operators by selling at higher level  and looking for profit booking by  keeping the index  at lower levels. This is what one could visualize as event for next week. 

The charts very clearly indicate saturation at higher levels. We had 5 consecutive weeks of high  close and we must watch  the closing tomorrow  to take cues for next week move.

Happy Trading!