NIFTY TREND

The index  showed high volatility as expected. The VIX shoot  up to 22.8%  during the day and finally cooled off to 19.% at  EOD.   Good rally  from 10105 to 10375 was  anticipated. Members were given the level of 10160 for a  gain of 25-30%.

Since the VIX  was high,  no carry over has been  suggested  and  only intra  day trade was suggested.  Those picked 10500/600 CE have booked  more than 30% profit  as the  entry was around 70 and exit above 100.

10400 -450 looks very crucial  and index may find it difficult to  sustain the level. Extreme caution is needed if any one goes long at this juncture.

Bank  Nifty weekly expiry can see maximum 25375 and on the lower side 24906.

Happy Trading!

NIFTY TREND..

Both Nifty and bank nifty obeyed the levels and closed above 10250/24925 yesterday.  Remember, if the first day of the week start with a bullish note, you may expect the trend to continue.  Trend reversal is seen in Nifty and BN yesterday when the upward rally started by 2 PM.  The bottom as of now is 10104.  

Points to note :

1.  Volatility index is high.  It has to cool down.

2. The CE premium is high.  For example 10500 CE premium is 111 when the index is at 10250. One must wait for premium to come down. You will find the premium shrinking even the market shoots up as the VIX will go against CE premium. No doubt I am in favor of market moving up.

3. There could be volatility till the time VIX gets cooled off. 

4.  Use dips to buy CE. DO NOT RUSH. You cannot pay 115 premium for OTM CE 10500 which is still 250 points far away from spot. 

ADVISE:  Go long in nifty and bank nifty for target 10475/25372.

Option trade is advised for members on board.

Happy Trading!!

NIFTY TREND

Nifty closed near month low on the expiry  day paving way for the November series to climb from the bottom formed  in October. 10249.6,  10138.6 and 10079.30 were the three bottom numbers formed in nifty  which could be considered  as a  positive divergence.   A minimum of 300-400 points bounce back can be expected from such  level.  

Bank Nifty has not broken 24250 bottom  formed till the expiry.

Nifty has to close above 10250 and BN above  24925 today to  initiate  fresh long in the market next week.

If  global cues help,  we can see nifty moving to 10450  and BN  to  25500.

Good Day!

NIFTY TREND

Nifty has tested 10102. I have posted that nifty will test 10111 level and look for  a bounce back.  Tomorrow could be very crucial for  nifty to hold today's bottom. 

NIFTY TREND

The first day of the week  again opened with a positive note but could  not last for a long time.  There  were  two attempts by bulls to take the market up. But could not succeed.  

If Nifty is able to take support  at 10180/140  then we can expect  a sharp bounce back.   Since the expiry is just two days  away, it is strongly advised not  to be aggressive in taking up positions. 

NIFTY TREND

Nifty took a U turn from 10710 and again touched 10249 and finally closed at 10303, marginally above 10300.  A bounce back is expected around 10111.

Bank Nifty also looks  weak. It wont be a surprise if it retest the recent  low of 24250.

Clue  for options trade.  One can hold on to PEs till the time nifty and BN  reaches  the above level. 

If today's gap down does  not give a  chance to  enter  into PE, then  one must  wait for reversal and be  on the Call side.  

ALERT:   Nowadays the gap  up and gap down in nifty is too risky that any one who writes  either CE or PE are in too much  risk  that the overnight position gets squared  off  in  no  time and they are left with no money to trade.  Always hedge your option writing.  

Suppose  you write 10500 CE of November then you buy equal quantity of 10700 CE. This will  protect  you from risk.  Trade with 25% of your capital. Do not invest 100%.

Happy Trading!

NIFTY - OPTIONS TRADE

The price action of  both PE and CE suggests  no change in trend and NO  TRADE is  suggested.

This applies to both Nifty and Bank Nifty.

Take care!!

NIFTY TREND

Bank Nifty and Nifty obeyed our levels posted yesterday.

Bank Nifty moved up to 25910 and unable to sustain the highs fell  gradually hour after hour till the end of the day and settled slightly above 25128.

We have not taken any CE or PE  and missed the jackpot as the steep fall from 25440 was not  expected. We did anticipate 25800 CE / PE  and 25700 PE  to do wonders. It did. This was predicted by me and informed to  all  members to focus on PEs after 1.30  PM.

Nifty  too  looked very weak when it  was breaking 10450, finally settled above 10450.  It has closed below 10492, which was last week high.  Now only a close above 10492 gives a further move.

Bank nifty too settled below  Friday high of 25484 and settled at 25188.

Watch these numbers to go long in  index as the bottom of  10138 and 24250  is intact.

Range for Friday trade : Nifty      10410-10526.   

                                        B Nifty  24906-25328

I  have given  exit from 11000 CE (November) to all the members and book profit. Entry was around 60-65 and exit above 90. High was 100. Assuming entry around 62 and  exit at 95,  ROI works out to 50%. 

I will give next 100% sure trade. Stay cool and calm. 

Trade with caution.   Obey the levels.  You will win.  

Happy  Trading!

NIFTY TREND

Nifty has closed above 10571. This augurs well for  the nifty. One can go long in future keeping SL at 10410 for a target 10708.

Bank Nifty has been outperforming and we can expect a move up to 25868/955 if 25645 is crossed on an hourly basis.

Good Day!

STOCK PICK - CAPF & CENTURY TEX

CAPF  has bottomed out and likely to continue to move towards north. An immediate target of  520/532  is inevitable keeping a SL at 475.

CENTURYTEX is on  gains  on a  weekly basis and  a close above 841.5 will take it to 878/920. Already in firm grip of  bulls after suffering 5 consecutive weekly lows.

Good  day!

REVIEW - SUNTV AND INFY

My pick SUNTV rocked yesterday with a good move when the hourly close was above  662. The technical level was obeyed.  My congrats to the members on board  who took futures  position and made handsome returns.

Similarly  INFY view was perfect and it never crossed 711.  It closed below 694. We expect  price movement much in line with what we have opined  yesterday.

Good  Day!!

MY VIEW - INFY

Today the results are going to be  out for IT major scrip INFY.  What is cooking in Nifty? Let's Analyze.

INFY has closed at 701, above  previous month low of 694.70. This is a very positive sign.

But the present close indicates cat on the wall situation.

If you look at previous week high and low (730-665) the present close is at 701 which is exactly the mid point of high and low. Since yesterday's close is above previous month low, the technical indicate some cheers in the  market.

Don't get biased on any scrip  based on your holding.  Do proper analysis. 

I advise going long with a strict SL of 694.70  for an immediate target  725.

Be ready to participate !!

STOCK PICK - SUNTV

Sun TV is showing recovery on  a weekly basis. A close above  661 confirms good move.

Go long in  this scrip with a strict  SL at 640.  Target 685-694.

Best of Luck

PS:

Yesterday we picked Granules, Raymond and CG Power.  All the three scrips gave good  move.

Let us hope SUN (TV) shines well today!

NIFTY TREND

Nifty has continued its northward journey and closed above 10500 and Bank   Nifty is under consolidation around 25300-400 level. 

As indicated the move could be in sideways due   to index is under consolidation and preparing for a next up move. 

DO NOT SHORT INDEX AND THE MARKET IS BUY ON DIPS  MODE.

TRADE

We have already initiated long in Options trade.  The strike price with BUY  price  STOP LOSS  and TARGETS are sent to members on board!!

Be first to  catch  the move.  No point regretting. You must have courage to trade.

Knowledge and courage both should go together. The combination of both pours profit.

TECHNICAL VIEW - COALNDIA & ZEE

The price action in Coal India  has been very aggressive since 8th October  2018. Now a  close above 283 should take the scrip up to 293.50.

Zee has been closing high for the past 4 days and  higher highs and lower lows. But it all looks like short covering  happening in this scrip.   Long or OTM CE can be initiated only on a  daily close  above 476.

Take care!!

PS : Anyone requiring suggestion on levels  for  any scrip can send me an email  so  that I will  be able  to answer the query.  narayanansrirangam@gmail.com

Please send  only one  scrip.  DO  NOT  SEND BIG LIST.  

NIFTY TREND

Yesterday I have posted about significance of 10482 which was last week high. Today Nifty could  touch this number but could not close above  this.    If nifty closes  above 10492 (Friday High) on hourly basis it will lead nifty to next level 10572/10603.

On bank nifty 25470 becomes  a  very critical resistance  and 24250  acts as strong  support.  

Friday  move of 250  points  is a relief rally. I has not closed above previous week high. It indicates sideways move on Monday.

For Nifty 10316/261 are critical  levels  and for Bank Nifty 24678/24240 are critical levels.

The gap is very wide and you cannot CEs  and  PEs to perform  or  you cannot expect market to go one sided. It should be a side way move.  

Keeep this in mind when you go  for  options trade during next week.

Happy trading!

NIFTY TREND

Wait for the index to show some positiveness. Exercise patience.

I advise no trade.  if Nifty is able to surpass 10392 you can have a better Monday opening. Else range bound.  Take care.

When nifty has dropped from 10930 to 10200 it means the under current is weak. Index is vulnerable. On a weekly basis it must show strength. For example first week high 11035 low 10261 close 10316.5. This week still we are below 10316.50. Again this week high 10482 low 10138 and close should be above 10316.50.

On a weekly basis, lower lows and lower highs are formed. Next week if you find nifty above 10482, then you are sure of up move. Till then we must watch market.

There is nothing called technical . We must wait for the right time.

ICICI - VIEW

The scrip  recovered from  its recent low of 296.50 and on a weekly basis it  has shown improvement, but on a daily close  it still shows turbulence. Better to avoid the scrip  till  the time on a week on week basis it gives positive outlook.

One should buy this scrip only if it closes  above 325 .90 on a daily close basis.

When the market is undergoing big correction,  any scrip which has closed above two week  high only can withstand and go  up. All scrips which do not meet  with this condition falls.

You can validate the above condition with the  scrips which are  positive today despite weak opening of index.

Learn  more.  Study more. Money will pour.

Good Luck!

TCS VIEW

As the quarterly results are likely in this week, the trend of  TCS looks weak. The price  action is negative. It may go down to  1970. One can try 20000  PE.   It closed at 61.95 today. It could  double tomorrow. One can try with a SL at 55 for big gain 100+.

MY VIEW

My view on Nifty remains bearish. If nifty breaks lower level of 10198, we may see 10081/10060 from where  one  can expect support.

Any bounce  back is just a  sell on  rise.  Be  alert.

Bank nifty has support at 24250, which has been the recent low formed  in this week. If that is  broken then we may see BN drifting down to 23906.

Clue for  trade:  Wait till 17th (next weekly expiry).  There are bright  chances of short covering  from 19th onward.   We will get a much  clearer picture when we are near third week  to  reasonably predict  the expiry numbers  of nifty and bank nifty. It is  too early as  the VIX is high.

NIFTY TREND

On a weekly trend Bank nifty is showing  some  positive sign,  but Nifty has not yet.

Today also Nifty opened positive but  remained range  bound  during the whole day and closed 50  points down.

Bank  Nifty also  lost  73  points and  closed at 24528.

Reversal  is not  yet visible. Only when the VIX  cools down to 16-15% level, we can expect up  move  in the index. Till then you will find high volatility and  high premiums on  options.

One can be assured of  a big move  - nifty 400 to  600  points and BN  1000-1500  points jump.  Better exercise patience and grab a good  opportunity.

Patience Pays!!

BE ALERT

One of the brokerage houses in  Chennai is not finding its customers to place orders on phone or online as the volatility in index has wiped out more than 50  Crores in their  clients' accounts. The money was wiped out on 21st September.  Till date the customers are not placing order.  The ground level situation is not  good.  

It will take  time for investors to  recover from this rude shock.  It has shattered the confidence  level.

It is better not to trade if you have not taken position in PE. Wait for reversal. It  will take minimum 15 days to have a  reversal trend due to nifty closing 5-6%  negative on weekly basis.

Trade with Care!  

REVIEW

Tata Elxsi was posted  yesterday with chart clearly showing buying should be done only above 1196.20. 

Respect the levels.  Now only a daily close above 1027 validates up  move.

Trade with utmost care.

NIFTY TREND

Nifty today formed  a  low of 10200 and it visited the area twice and after a  quick recovery it  closed at 10348.   All such moves are happening in the last 30-45 minutes. On Friday it was a downward movement in the last 30 minutes. 

Please bear  in mind that these moves are  beyond technical and  happening in NO TRADE ZONE. It is not advised to catch the moves. Nifty moving 150  points plus or minus in such a short duration means market is highly volatile and any bet on options is 100% risky. Avoid Options trade  till  such a time volatility reaches below 15%.

Nifty has too many  hurdles  and it is difficult to see positional trend reversal.

When trend reverses positional, you will find posting here.

Till then Good bye!!

STOCK OPTION

TATA ELXSI,QUARTERLY  RESULTS AWAITED IN THIS WEEK.  SCRIP IS SELL ON RISE TILL FRIDAY.  A CLOSE ABOVE 1196.20 WILL LEAD TO UP  MOVE.

NIFTY TREND

Nifty has opened gap  down on the third consecutive day, shedding 300 points as the RBI Policy failed to  impress  the market. BN has closed at 24443, below  24760. BN closed at 24759.6 on April 5, 2018.   Today's down  move has broken 5 month support level.

Now next important support levels are 24062 and 23657.  

Nifty looks more volatile than BN.  It has closed above the low made on April 5, which is 10253. If it breaches  10253, then major supports are at  10121  & 9976. Nifty likely to  take support at 9780.

We are almost reaching  the point where the bearish trend should find its end.  Nifty another 600 points  and BN 1000 points further down trend likely.

DO NOT LOOK FOR REVERSAL TILL THURSDAY!!

Note  these numbers and trade with caution!

NIFTY TREND

Nifty opened gap  down and the  day  ended with  a loss of 259 points and BNF down by 250 points. Nifty has overreacted to the  situation.  IOC,  BPCL  and  HINDPETRO tanked 20% apart from RIL 8%.

The worst is not  yet  over.   October month has  seen only 3 sessions and with in that index   has  lost 4.5%.  Looking at the scenario, market is likely  to touch 9700 level to complete the correction cycle.

Bank Nifty likely to touch  23600.

Members have been given the  perfect levels to make use  of the down trend.

Do not  go long in this  market. Any bounce back is just sell  on rise. Buy PE on rise and look for the above  numbers and make gains or wait for reversal.

Happy Trading!!

STOCK IDEA

Today   the picks are:

STRIKE  PRICE, BUY PRICE,  SL, TR  SENT TO  MEMBERS ON BOARD:

NIIT TECH, MINDTREE, UBL AND MCDOWELL-N

NIFTY TREND

On Monday Nifty Touched  10821 and from there we saw a  quick  recovery  and closed +70 points at the  end of the  day.  The low recorded on  Monday could be the weekly / monthly support level  for  nifty.  Shorts can  be created only if  nifty breaches 10820 on a daily close  basis.

Index has turned  green  after a  month  and  the up trend is likely tot remain for few sessions. Nifty is expected to touch 11139 and bank nifty 25500/700.

The  overall  bearish trend still remain intact. This  up move  is a temporary pull back.

Both    the index likely to have limited  move and remain direction less till RBI policy is out. 

Clue for trade. Pick  111000 CE around 100  SL 96 for quick doubling.

Happy Trading!