NIFTY - NEXT WEEK

Nifty has closed at a very critical point. We can rather call it a cat on the wall situation. Having climbed up so fast with gap up and not letting the index down for the past two days, the closing looks tricky. It could either be 12250 or 11935 in this expiry on spot and on futures 12280/11967.

Nifty spot closed very near to monthly buy entry level where as Nifty futures has closed above 12138 which was the Dec month high till 12th. This indicates positive bias but a close above 12196 confirms continuation of trend. We need to wait and see.

Most of the retailers have not participated in the rally as there has been no dips in nifty to give a chance for an entry. Adopt buy on dips if you see 11935 spot is on the screen, 11970 in Futures.

The price action in nifty suggests increase in VIX during the mid of next week indicating high volatility. It could be a big swing +/-   250 points next week in nifty. 

Be long only if a daily close is above 12158 and be short if and Only if you see an hourly close below 12081 - (spot) / 12116 ( future).

DO NOT CHASE NIFTY AND BANK NIFTY.

Good Luck!

அவை அஞ்சாமை -Not to dread the Council

பல்லவை கற்றும் பயமிலரே நல்லவையுள்

நன்கு செலச்சொல்லா தார்.    #728

மு.வ : நல்ல அறிஞரின் அவையில் நல்லப் பொருளைக் கேட்பவர் மனதில் பதியுமாறு சொல்ல முடியாதவர், பல நூல்களைக் கற்றாலும் பயன் இல்லாதவரே.

Though many things they've learned, yet useless are they all, To man who cannot well and strongly speak in council hall. 

Those who cannot agreeably speak good things before a good assembly are indeed unprofitable persons in spite of all their various acquirement.

NIFTY TREND

Nifty once again opened with 55 points gap up, surpassing 12018 being previous week close and never broke the lower formation till EOD.  It went on to clinch 12100, but shied away by 2 points and closed at 12086.  From lower low and lower high formation for 4 consecutive days, Nifty formed higher high and higher lows during the last 2 sessions indicating a total change in the scenario. The bias is positive.

Will there be a further rally towards 12250 or mild down side towards 11935 to take a breather after having a non-top rally of 266 points from the low of 11832. We are not soothsayers to predict the direction. With market direction indicating positiveness, one has to be bullish. But a close above 12092 would have been much comfortable to bet on CE. It didn't close above that on a weekly basis. That makes me more cautious.  

Monday's first 4 hours of trade to give the direction for the week till expiry. 

Have a Happy and eventful weekend!!

அலர் அறிவுறுத்தல் - The Announcement of the Rumour

அலரெழ ஆருயிர் நிற்கும் அதனைப்
பலரறியார் பாக்கியத் தால்  # 1141

மு.வ : (எம் காதலைப் பற்றி) அலர் எழுவதால் அறிய உயிர் போகாமல் நிற்கின்றது, எம் நல்வினைப் பயனால் பலரும் அறியாமலிருக்கின்றனர்.

By this same rumour's rise, my precious life stands fast; Good fortune grant the many know this not! 

My precious life is saved by the raise of rumour, and this, to my good luck no others are aware of.

NIFTY TREND

On expiry day, nifty opened gap up and retained the gain till the end. The high formed in the first 15 minutes was broken after 3 Pm making an up move of 25 points, mistook by retailers as a big move and most of them trapped in 12000 CE which came down to zero. Nifty futures got topped out at 12045. That was the maximum move possible for the expiry. Similarly BN also topped out at 31710 but unlike nifty it retained the gains made in the last 30 minutes.

Altogether a good finish to the expiry where 11935 - being previous week low being crossed. The next target for nifty is to cross 12017/12018, being low recorded on Nov 29, 2019 and previous expiry close. Once these numbers are crossed we may see new high. 

.

Both the index have already done with down side levels for the month. Any dip is a buy from today onward with a Strict SL at 11832/30996.

Good Luck!

இடன் அறிதல் - Knowing the Place

கடலோடா கால்வல் நெடுந்தேர் கடலோடும்
நாவாயும் ஓடா நிலத்து.  #496

மு.வ : வலிய சக்கரங்களையுடைய பெரியத் தேர்கள் கடலில் ஓடமுடியாது, கடலில் ஓடுகின்ற கப்பல்களும் நிலத்தில் ஓடமுடியாது.

The lofty car, with mighty wheel, sails not o'er watery main, The boat that skims the sea, runs not on earth's hard plain. 

Wide chariots, with mighty wheels, will not run on the ocean; neither will ships that the traverse ocean, move on the earth. 

NIFTY TREND

11/12/2019  @ 18.00 Hrs

Nifty today opened with a mild gap up. During the mid of the day again nifty was trading near previous day low and finally after forming a new low of 11832 it surged towards 12023 in the last 30 minutes of trade there by eroding all the PEs. 

Though the last minute move brought cheers, nifty is still not out of woods. It has to cross the low of previous week and that only confirms renewed interest in buying. Unless this happens, it is not prudent to buy CE.

Tomorrow range 11800-950  BN 30900-31500.

Good Luck!

குறள் அதிகாரம் : பெரியாரைப் பிழையாமை

Not Offending the Great

எரியால் சுடப்படினும் உய்வுண்டாம் உய்யார்

பெரியார்ப் பிழைத்தொழுகு வார்.   #896

மு.வ : தீயால் சுடப்பட்டாலும் ஒருகால் உயிர் பிழைத்து வாழ முடியும், ஆற்றல் மிகுந்த பெரியவரிடத்தில் தவறு செய்து நடப்பவர் தப்பி பிழைக்க முடியாது

Though in the conflagration caught, he may escape from thence: He 'scapes not who in life to great ones gives offence. 

Though burnt by a fire (from a forest), one may perhaps live; (but) never will he live who has shown disrespect to the great (devotees). 

NIFTY TREND

Nifty opened with mild gap up at 11950, but during the later part of the day could not protect the major support of 11878, took support at my monthly level of 11844.70 and closed near day low. The close looks weak. Bank Nifty has more correction left. If that starts happening, we can see further slide in nifty.

Today likely to see more swings 11930/960 on higher side and 11820 on the lower side. 

Since 11878 has been broken, be cautious in trade as 11802 is the next support.

The range for the day 11800-11980  BN 31000-31500.

Good Day!

                                                            
                                       குறள் அதிகாரம் : இல்வாழ்க்கை - Domestic Life
                                           
                                            ஆற்றின் ஒழுக்கி அறனிழுக்கா இல்வாழ்க்கை
                                                   நோற்பாரின் நோன்மை உடைத்து.   #48

மு.வ : மற்றவரை அறநெறியில் ஒழுகச்செய்து தானும்அறம் தவறாத இல்வாழ்க்கை , தவம் செய்வாரைவிட மிகச்சிறந்த வல்லமை உடைய வாழ்க்கையாகும்

Others it sets upon their way, itself from virtue ne'er declines; Than stern ascetics' pains such life domestic brighter shines. 

The householder who, not swerving from virtue, helps the ascetic in his way, endures more than those who endure penance.

NIFTY TREND

Nifty opened mild positive, but again moved down to take support at 11888 and it was a very slow and steady move towards 11982 exactly at 1.05 pm.It could not sustain at high and again rolled down to 11921 and finally closed at 11937. 

Now 11888 appears to be the key number to decide the down side, while 11982 is a challenge for the bulls. 

For tomorrow, 11906 and 12025 are critical numbers to watch.  

Good Luck!

குறள் அதிகாரம் : புலால் மறுத்தல்

கொல்லான் புலாலை மறுத்தானைக் கைகூப்பி
எல்லா உயிருந் தொழும்.   #260

மு.வ : ஓருயிரையும் கொல்லாமல் புலால் உண்ணாமல் வாழ்கின்றவனை உலகத்தில் உள்ள எல்லா உயிர்களும் கைகூப்பி வணங்கும்.

The Renunciation of Flesh

Who slays nought - flesh rejects- his feet before All living things with clasped hands adore.

 All creatures will join their hands together, and worship him who has never taken away life, nor eaten flesh. 

TODAY TRADING STRATEGY

As long as 11878 is not broken, adopt buy on dip strategy. Keep SL 11845. 11936/955/975 are resistances to watch. 11889/84/78/02 are  downside numbers you must be alert.

Good Luck

அல்லவை தேய அறம்பெருகும் நல்லவை

நாடி இனிய சொலின்       - # 96

மு.வ : பிறர்க்கு நன்மையானவற்றை நாடி இனிமை உடையச் சொற்களைச் சொல்லின், பாவங்கள் தேய்ந்து குறைய அறம் வளர்ந்து பெருகும்.

The Utterance of Pleasant Words

Who seeks out good, words from his lips of sweetness flow; In him the power of vice declines, and virtues grow. #96.

If a man, while seeking to speak usefully, speaks also sweetly, his sins will diminish and his virtue increase.