MARKET TREND 1.9.17

Expiry day did not have much fire works but closed with a positive note. Index closed 200 points minus over previous month. There are no efforts seen to lift the index to get in to safe zone for next month. 

The roll  over in future position is also not indicating a big positive move. 

One must exercise caution in going long.  Wait for the right time to take up the position.  

Better to watch and wait for the trend to set in.

MARKET TREND 31/8/17 EXPIRY DAY

It was indeed a spectacular move where nifty ended with a smart recovery of around 90 points.  The reason for such a bounce back is due to expiry as well as roll over of positions. Unless index moves up no one will be really interested in taking positions.

Be long only when NF crosses 9920 and BNF 24400. If index sustains these levels for 15 minutes tomorrow then we can expect a good rally similar to today.

Target for Nifty 9970 and BNF 24610. Take call options accordingly.

Buy 24500 CE below 5.00  if you happen to get before 12 noon and look for gains. After 2.30  PM buy CEs only if BNF crosses 24400 and Nifty future crosses 9920. Till then wait and watch.

Happy Trading!!

MARKET TREND 30.08.2017

Today  Nifty and Bank Nifty finally ended with a big loss. NF lost 125 points and BNF 277 points at a time when every expert on TV was talking of consolidation.

The  impact of high volatility which we experienced in the month has played in. Somehow bulls have been holding the index and managed the index inspite of high VIX. Now that it is no more possible to do that.

September month could be see a low of 9350-9400. Market does not seem to recover as the broader market is weakening.   Seeing is believing. Please see below. 

Wait for 9749 to break on a daily closing basis to take positional trade. Take any Sep PE, Relax and enjoy.

Happy Trading!!

MARKET TREND 29-08-2017

Nifty and BNF had moved up as expected. But both the indexes have not closed above the 9920/24475 to confirm upward move. The index is likely to be on the sideways till such time.  

Since the index have been bearish from the beginning of this month, it is necessary for the market to be bullish till expiry so that fresh long positions are created in the market.  If that does not happen it means that there could be yet another slide.   Let us hope bulls will take control of the market for some more time.

Nifty Positional levels bullish above 9960 - Target 10080. 

BNF Bullish above 24450- Target  24880/25366.

Tips for Trade: Buy 24700 CE at Mkt price when BNF crosses 24450.  You can exit at 180-200. Do not try any other OTM.

Else try 10000 CE at CMP when NF trades above 9960 for more than 15 minutes.

Happy Trading!!

MARKET TREND 28.08.2017

The Index has been playing a see-saw game with 100  plus or minus. The Volatility Index also witnessed a historic high of 14%  plus. Despite all these the index managed to stay above 9800 and inching towards 9900 clearly indicates the index management.

Be long only when Nifty closes above 9920 and BNF above 24475  on a daily basis. Till such a time the moves are sideways.

Close below 9875 and 24300 for NF and BNF means still there are chances of down trend. But index must breach 9700 and 24000 on a daily close basis to see nifty drifting towards 9350 and BNF 22500 levels.  This will happen when the fall is least expected. 

Options strategy: Puts are out of buy mode. But Calls have not also come under buy mode. This means the trend is not set on either direction. Stay away from options where premiums erode during the last week of expiry.

Happy Trading!

MARKET TREND 24/08//2017

Today we could see a good rebound in Nifty and Bank Nifty and both are very close to safe Zone from where bullish trend begins. Credit goes to Dow Jones which guided our market to close above 9850.

The main component of Nifty, bank nifty is well above the trend deciding level. Nifty will pick the mood from BNF and tomorrow we can see further momentum.

Nifty above  9920 looks bullish and BNF above 24478.   Be long as long as these numbers are not breached.

Tip: Buy Month end call of BNF -  25000 CE- for decent returns. Minimum Double.

Happy Trading!!

MARKET TREND 23.08.2017

Nifty attempted to touch 9843 but the rise got sold into. Since  then it was a range bound trade through out the day. The close was 9794.

Bank Nifty attempted to climb 24132 but the same could not happen till the end of the day and closed at 24083.

The market does not have any good news to cheer about and gallop. Even a small upside momentum does not sustain for an hour and market goes range bound means the it is in sell on rise mood.  Better to be short in the market as Puts are hot favorite now. 

Nifty above 9940 and BNF above 24520 means one can go long. Till then Call Options are meaningless.  

If Nifty Future breaches 9730, you can see 9300 for sure. Similarly if BNF breaches 23825 then you will end at 21900.

This correction can last for  some time and reversal is possible only after hitting the targets.

I am not giving any positional level numbers as levels are meaningless in  a falling market. 

Go by trend and make profit and do not get stuck in black hole.

Happy Trading!!

BEAR ARRIVED

We proudly announce the arrival of bear who will be the guest for quite some time.  Bulls have gone to hide. He will control the domestic  and international market as long  as he likes.

MARKET TREND 22.08.2017

Nifty Future and BNF both could not sustain a small upside rally as the selling pressure has been too much.  

As posted yesterday, BNF has breached 24000 and closed below 24k. This has been clearly mentioned  with the help of Chart in this blog.  

Hope most of the people would have got benefited out of the same.  This is a sell on rise market. 

Nifty and BNF are both under severe selling pressure. Avoid all longs in the market. Again I remind that No Trump and No Kim is responsible for  the fall. This is purely technical sell. As indicated earlier you can epect 600-700 points correction from the peak -10150 in case of NF and 2500-700 points in BNF from its peak  25260.  So plan accordingly and try to take most advantage out of this huge correction.

Nifty Positional Support 9450/9350  Resistance  9875/9920/10070

Bank Nifty Positional Support 22800/22500 Resistance 24307/24473

Happy Trading!!

BANK NIFTY 24000CE

The 24000CE gives you the idea of BNF bearish.

Wait for upper band to hit to take Call or lower band to breach to take Put. No attempt made on Friday to touch the top line. A close below 260 means gate is opened for 24000 and below.

This is the indication for further fall.

Unless you have grip of numbers either in XL or n chart you cannot win this options trade.

MARKET TREND 21-08-2017

Nifty slipped more than 100  points and it touched a low of 9788 and the recovery was equally good and closed above 9838 which is a trend deciding number.

Bank Nifty also fell  sharply and could not close above trend deciding number 24288 which is far away from reach. In fact BNF is not supporting Nifty.

We have seen Nifty recovering from low of 9700 level twice with in this month. Any slippage below 9800 in the coming week may take nifty to 9737/9700.  Bank Nifty likely to touch 23833. 

Investor must note that it will be too difficult to climb to 10000 level again as global cues are not supporting. Dow Jones have started the downward journey. 

Please cut your long position and be ready for a correction. Remember, this bull run has started in January 2017 and only during August market has started correcting. So far the bull run has added 2000 + points to Nifty. Be ready for 30% correction of 600 Points. We will  definitely see 9500. (10150-600). (BNF - 2000 Points). Definitely correction phase could prolong for a month or two before market moves ahead for another run.

Let us be prepared to face correction which is going to be little more serious from next week on wards.

Happy Traing!

MARKET TREND 18/8/2017

Index which took a big rally yesterday seems to have taken rest and traded in a very narrow range through out the day.

Especially BNF disappointed all those who have bought at a penny price and holding it for big gains today.  

After a big fall around 3 pm, BNF  climbed up to 24300 to close at 24295. This kind of volatility on expiry day makes call and put option to multiply many folds.

If Nifty Future above 9960 and BNF above 24450 on a daily close basis then one can initiate long position for targts 10060 and 24900 respectively.  This will give an impression of trend reversal  and make investors confident of going long. But be very cautious at this level.  

Happy trading!

MARKET TREND 17-08-2017

Today the bounce back on index was a cheers to the bulls.  As indicated in my today's posting, Nifty future above 9901 and BNF above 24500  on a daily  close basis is necessary to be long in the  market. 

Nifty support 9892/9874/9856/9826//9788. Resistance 9920/9987.

BNF Support 24462/441/348/202/185/157  Resistance 24587/703/898.

Happy    Trading!

WATCH THE TREND

Nifty Future should hold 9730 and BNF should hold  23825 in the coming days. If the daily close is above 9900 and 24500 NF and BNF then only one can go long. Till then wait and watch like Kim watching USA to initiate action !!

MARKET TREND 16/08/2017

Tuesday saw Nifty opening with 40 points gap up as it was just following DOW Jones! The trend remains the  same.

Correction has not completed yet. The calls have not come in buy  mode nor the  puts have lost the  grip the fully.  

One must wait and watch to enter into trade rather than wasting the money and  time in this trend less  moves.

Nifty  Future Resistance  9838/9892/9901.  Support 9801/9782/9727/9682.  

Bank Nifty Future Resistance 24246/391/447/498. Support 24157/132/23956/670.

MARKET TREND 14.08.2017

Our Market followed Dow Jones on Friday and opened with a gap down and at one  point of time it was down by 144 points finally closed at 9741 (-113).

As mentioned earlier, a close below 9875 deteriorates the situation and we can further see Nifty drifting down towards 9450/9350 levels. 9350 levels seems to be inevitable in the coming days. The down trend may be slow even if the global scenario improves. 

Bank Nifty also lost its critical level of 24300 and closed near 24000. We can see move down up to 22850/22500.

Please note that this correction is not due to Trump or Kim. This is purely technical.  How long one can go long without any correction? 

Do not get into call option unless the trend reverses. When market reverses we need no news. I will post trend reversal. News will follow. You can make a note of it when it happens as you follow me every day in this blog.

Nifty support Positional : 9675/50/9593/9450. If 9450 is breached then last level support 9350. Hope the correction ends between 9450-9350 level.

Bank Nifty Positional : 24050/23675/23450/23375/23000/22850/22500.  

BE PREPARED FOR FURTHER CORRECTION AS 50-100 POINTS RECOVERY IS MEANINGLESS IN THIS MARKET. SAME REVERSAL HAPPENED IN NOVEMBER 2016 AFTER DEMONETIZATION AND MARKET PLUNGED TO LOWS EVERYDAY FROM THERE ! HISTORY REPEATS!  

AS OF NOW TREND IS DOWN!

Happy Trading!

Advise

Option prices are like mirage many times. If you are in profit 30-40% please book it and wait for next opportunity unless you are technically sound to wait for bigger returns.

Keep trailing Stop Loss  and aim for higher returns.

Always cut your loss with SL.

Never carry option overnight.

Sleep well and carry no tension.

If at all you wanted to carry some option next day, write those in a piece of paper with value. Next day morning see profit or loss made.

Repeat this for 22 trading days. You see how many days you  are successful on paper trade. This will be an eye opener.  Also draw the profit or loss made at the end of 22 days.

Be judicious to yourself and come  to conclusion!  You may start from 14/8/17 to 13/9/17.

Pick one call option and one put option as buy and find out your returns. you must square off both at the same time next day either at 9.30 am or 3.15 pm.

Remember operators are very active only during first 15 minutes and last 30 minutes. Remaining time they don't enter.

Watching the market throughout the day you get tired. But they come fresh at 2.30 and play smart and make big money in small time. That is the secret of money making!!

MARKET TREND 11.08.2017

Nifty  Futures today tested the most critical level of 9832/9812 and bounced back from the low level in no time. The technical worked perfectly. Again if 9813 is breached on a daily closing basis we will have a big fall. For positional trade one must wait for this level.

Bank Nifty also did the same. Last minute run up from bottom has saved BNF from its dangerous low level.

This expiry trade lived for a very short period in the morning and there after no much charm in options trading.  24200 was a big trap on which most of the investors would have fallen.

Nifty has support at 9832/9812 and resistance at 9875/9926.

Bank Nifty has support at 24317. resistance at 24425.

MARKET TREND 10.08.2017

Geo Political situation has resulted giving a big shake to our market today. Both the indexes closed at day low giving a clear indication that the down trend is not complete yet.

Since Nifty and BNF lose the most critical support level, it may take 7-15 days for a recovery from this downfall.  The fall  could stretch up to 22nd of this month.  Cut all your long positions and turn as a buyer when you find nifty 9832/9800 level. 9794 is trend decider and reversal is expected at that point. If that also is broken then last support seen 9454. Since this correction could last for a long period it is better to wait for trend reversal which will be posted in my blog.

Happy Trading!

TRADE

Much awaited  opportunity has come!
POSITIONAL CALL - BUY AUG 10000PE  AT  CMP AND HOLD.

Happy Trading!

MARKET TREND 09.08.2017

Both Nifty and Bank Nifty started tumbling tumbling down at 9.30 AM. Bank Nifty closed at 24705.90 which is good for an up move.

Nifty Future closed at 10004.30 giving some solace to bulls for a close above 10000.

The   index movement will be sideways for first half of session tomorrow and there after we can expect  recovery.

This recovery could be around 60 points for Nifty and 180 points for Bank Nifty. Alternatively you can expect a rally upto 10060 & 24880 in NF and BNF respectively.

This expiry could possibly end around 24900 so that all Puts and below 24900 and Calls above 24800 are eroded fully.

Exercise caution when you trade in BNF as well as NF.

Nifty Support 9990//9841/9780  Resistance 10067/10087.

Bank Nifty Support 24578/23876 Resistance  24750/825.

Happy Trading!!

Hint for Trade: Buy puts when you find Nifty around 10070 and BNF arouund 24875.

MARKET TREND 08.08.2017

Nifty Future ended at 10086(-26) and BNF at 24980(+23). Today the range was very narrow and looking for cues for a sharp move on either side.

A 15 minute close above 10124 will lead NF to 10160.  

For BNF a close above 25085 will push it to previous higher levels.

Nifty Future Support 10075/38/18/9985  Resistance 10103/124/155

BNF Support 24938/755/699/607  Resistance 24996/25086/25260.

Do not short this market.. Trend is up. The side way movement in Index may persist for a day or two.

OPTION TRADE

Time to buy an option is very critical.  Option is also like equity. But the difference if you make a mistake a in equity buy you can stay for more time  to exit. In case of Options your inaction will eat your capital 100%.

I give a below the tips for entry into options at right price. What is right price and right time will be decided technically.  The following example is based on 10100 CE of Aug 17 Expiry.

Monthly High 150.00 Monthly Low 16.20

On 18th July it touched a low of 48.05 and never visited this place again. You have to immediately note down the date on which this number was crossed.  It was on 13th July. Note down High and low of this date. The low was 53.55. You can see that this low has never been closed on  daily basis till date.  

Again on 3rd August it touched a low of 74.20 and closed at 82.70. Note down the date on which this 74.20  was crossed. It was on 24th July. The low on this date was 64.  The interesting thing is 82.70  was  the high achieved on 24th July. 

Now next thing you must note down is number of days remaining to expiry. This month Expiry is on 31st. So 17 trading days are remaining.

So far 150 has been touched from a low of 16.20 and closed at 82.70. Almost 40% of gain is lost.  The best price to buy is above 64.00. How this rate is arrived?  Since the latest low of 74.20 was crossed on 24th July with a bottom  of 64.00 this 64 acts as a strong bounce back point in case of next drop in Nifty and recovery.

You must do this analysis for Put also in the same manner and note down the buy point. 

What is the stop  loss for this 64. Obviously 48.05. That is the most strongest base which will not be touched if the bull run continues.

What is the target for Exit for this Option?

If this Option start trading above 150 before 17th of this month, the exit price will be minimum 300. Now you can calculate the number of times your buy price of 64 over 300.

Start doing home work. Analyse the data. Options never jump just like that. Technical works on every data. Be it Equity  or Option!

Those who have doubt still can reach me on email. 

Be a positional investor in Options rather than day trading! You will be succcessful!

Happy Learning!!

MARKET TREND 07.08.2017

Nifty Future recovered from a low of 10018 to 10124 and closed at 10111.  Bank Nifty also recovered from low of 24698 to 24995 and closed at 24958.

The bearish trend could last for just two days and both the index moved again in to the bull territory. Hope this will give relief to investors.

But today the low made in Nifty future and BNF was a opening punch. One can expect both the index to revisit this number 10018 and 24698 anytime during next week. Do  not short the market at that time and wait for long position.

Nifty Support 10108/10075/10036  Resistance 10136

BNF Support 24790/726//623  Resistance 24996/25060/163/216

Tips for Trade: BNF is at 130 premium. The calls will definitely shed premium. Try to Buy 24800 CE at 80.00 when it reverses from bottom for big gains.  

Wish you Good Luck!

OPTIONS TRADE

Most of the people believe in taking trade based on trade call from brokers or from trading houses. But no one gives you 100% assurance on returns.

Self study is very important before you invest in any Option whether weekly or monthly or Index based or stock specific. 

Do some home work and try one Call or Put Option. 

For the knowledge of followers, I will provide guidance as how to approach any Option and buy at correct level.  Try it and you will always be successful.

That will be posted during this week end. One Call Option and One Put option. 

Believe in yourself. Do not let others to take you for a ride.

Happy Trading!!

MARKET TREND 04/08/2017

The expiry trade was very much in line with the expectation . All Call premiums vanished up to 24700 CE much to the disbelief of the Bulls. 

I have already alerted yesterday  not to take the index moves lightly.  

Nifty has slipped the most critical support level 10114 and bank nifty 25150. Even though all calls have lost the charm, the Puts have not come in positional buy. The situation is not conducive to buy Puts which  however had moved up.

Nifty Future support 9998/9945. Resistance 10060/10094/136. Breaching 9920 will lead to serious fall. 

Bank Nifty Fut Support 24694/573/457. Resistance 24960/25073/25216. Breaching 24475  will lead to serious fall.

Trade with caution!!

Tips for trade: Buy BNF24800 PE Aug 31 Expiry around 305 SL 240  TR 600.

MARKET TREND 03/08/2017 - EXPIRY TRADE

Today RBI Policy was in line with expectation.  Since 0.25% rate cut was already factored BNF did not move much. 

But the 25200 CE paid the returns for  our patience today.

Tomorrow could be yet another day where a minimum move in BNF and Nifty could be expected and that too the move will happen in the last one hour of trade. This will erode all premiums of OTM options.

Trend remains negative for BNF as well as Nifty. Correction is possible. Nifty likely to touch 9920 and BNF 24500.

Tips for tomorrow trade: Do not buy Call Options thinking of Jackpot. 

Happy Trading!!

MARKET TREND 2/8/17

It has already become a trend to take the index up during the last 30 minutes of trade. Both Nifty and BNF closed very near to all time high.

The much expected RBI Policy tomorrow is increasing the anxiety of the investors. So far all the policies released in 2017 have brought cheers to the market. Whether the same trend will continue or will there be a disappointment?

While Nifty future has crossed today's high and created a new high, BNF could not surpass the 25229 which is a tough resistance.

In all probability Nifty and BNF likely to move in opposite direction in the initial hours of trade before synchronizing.

Nifty Resistance  .... Support 10137/114/099/052/041

BNF Resistance 25366.  Support 25150/102/945/897/819.

Alert : Book all your profits before 2.45 PM. DO NOT ALLOW OVERCONFIDENCE TO WIN OVER YOU.