NIFTY TREND

Nifty closed below previous month expiry @ 12127. All our predictions came true and I could see smile on everyone's face. We picked the jackpot trade technically. 

12150 PE at 2/ as 12200 PE at 10. 32000 Pe at 3.00. You know it was a day for PE holders. 

It sounds like a dream. But all that happened today.  

Good Luck!

NIFTY TREND

Nifty has closed below 12259 decisively on a truncated week with only one day to go for monthly expiry. Last Thursday, all CEs above 12250 strike price was sold like hot cakes with exorbitant premium has been reduced to pennies as the direction has changed totally.  

Trading strategy for the day : 

If Nifty is able to keep its head above 12259.70 - being previous expiry close number for more than an hour, then there are possibilities to move near 12293. An hourly close below 12211 pulls the nifty down to 12131.30. 

Since this is the last expiry of the year, market is near All Time High, sharp fall may not be possible. 12182 being the fresh high above previous high of 12158 act as a strong support. We may expect a bounce back from 12130-40 to 12182 today to resume uptrend after expiry to 12367. This is the monthly target. 

Trade with caution. 

நீத்தார் பெருமை - The Greatness of Ascetics

குணமென்னும் குன்றேறி நின்றார் வெகுளி

கணமேயும் காத்தல் அரிது.      #29

மு.வ : நல்ல பண்புகளாகிய மலையின்மேல் ஏறி நின்ற பெரியோர், ஒரு கணப்பொழுதே சினம் கொள்வார் ஆயினும் அதிலிருந்து ஒருவரைக் காத்தல் அரிதாகும்.

The wrath ’tis hard e’en for an instant to endure,

Of those who virtue’s hill have scaled, and stand secure.

The anger of those who have ascended the mountain of goodness, though it continue but for a moment, cannot be resisted.

TREND DECIDER

Watch out 12268 and 32325 in Nifty and BN respectively. If it closes above this today go LONG. Or else be SHORT.

NIFTY TREND

No other creature has the ability of changing its color according to its environment than a chameleon, a fickle and inconstant creature of lizards family.  Now Nifty got added into the lizards family. After 7 days of gap up opening, forming higher high and higher low, making new highs day after day, it has halted its move and looking backward with all negativity.  What a swift move in changing its direction!!

Nifty opened gap down on the day 1 of expiry week, could not cross 12293, being Friday High, closed below 12272.  

Nifty outlook has changed for the expiry. If 12229 is not held today on a close basis, then the expiry could be below 12200. 

Bank Nifty held my number 32198 and took support from there yesterday. But looking at the whole trading setup, this is not the time to be long.  

I anticipate a low of 12131/110 in this week. The top level of 12293 is almost frozen. 

In short, the index is in sell on rise mode! 12229 - 12293 are deciding numbers for the directions. 

Till yesterday we preferred buy on dips by grabbing 12250 CE at 33 and exited near 50. Today we may prefer a different trade with handsome gains. 

The more in-depth analysis and trade advises for members on board!

Good Luck!

அரண் - The Fortification

சிறுகாப்பிற் பேரிடத்த தாகி உறுபகை
ஊக்கம் அழிப்ப தரண்.  # 744

மு.வ : காக்க வேண்டிய இடம் சிறியதாய், மற்ற இடம் பெரிய பரப்புள்ளதாய், தன்னை எதிர்த்துவந்த பகைவரிருடைய ஊக்கத்தை அழிக்க வல்லது அரண் ஆகும்.

A fort must need but slight defence, yet ample be, Defying all the foeman's energy. 

A fort is that which has an extensive space within, but only small places to be guarded, and such as can destroy the courage of besieging foes. 

NIFTY WEEKLY TREND - EXPIRY WEEK

Nifty close during the last Friday was an ATH close after making an all time high of 12293. Technically Nifty goes into SELL only if it closes below 12211 on a daily basis during any of these two days before expiry.  

If you start buying PE or shorting Index futures, relying on the views of so called EXPERTS saying correction is due technically, you will be burning your cash. I may be harsh in saying this with too much of confidence, but the fact of the matter is that no one can stop nifty from moving another 200 points from 12259.70, being previous week expiry close. During the last 3 months, we have witnessed 867,295,182 points surge in the index during the last week.  As the exchange has started insisting on physical delivery of stocks from shorter, the scrip and nifty moves up due to short covering.  Plan your trade accordingly

From the Friday low of 12252, I assume at least 180-200 points upside in nifty. This expiry could see 12425-450.  Bank Nifty 32600/725.  BN may not give up 32199 being the Friday Low. 

Good Luck!

சிற்றினம் சேராமை -  Avoiding mean Associations

சிற்றினம் அஞ்சும் பெருமை சிறுமைதான்

சுற்றமாச் சூழ்ந்து விடும்.   # 451

மு.வ : பெரியோரின் இயல்பு சிற்றினத்தை அஞ்சி ஒதுக்கும், சிறியோரின் இயல்பு அதையே சுற்றமாக எண்ணித் தழுவிக் கொள்ளும்.

The great of soul will mean association fear; The mean of soul regard mean men as kinsmen dear. 

(True) greatness fears the society of the base; it is only the low - minded who will regard them as friends. 

BANK NIFTY TREND

The Bank Nifty chart is given below. Shorter should not wait for downside. Minimize your loss and exit from PEs. Please ignore my post if you are wealthy enough to lose.

NIFTY TREND

Nifty made higher high and higher low during the whole week and closed with a highly positive bias. The week closed with 185 points gain. And Expiry to expiry it was 288 points. This was the first time fear overcame the greed and retailers were just watching the rally waiting for a dip to buy which never happened.  

Those waiting for dips or huge fall may have to wait. Those who buy PEs may be wealthy enough to lose. 

But market does not bother about them!  With global cues being positive, daily and weekly trend pointing northward direction, one must choose whether to take part in the rally or watch it. 

You want to  be  Virat Kholi or Virender Sehwag. Choose your role as active player or commentator.

Till end of the year 2019, do not try PEs. Take part in the rally and make money for a merry Christmas and New year party!

Rally is going to continue beyond monthly expiry. This is what Nifty whispered to me after weekly close. 

Any one willing to understand market, willing to trade with levels with no greed, do contact me. 

Knowledge is power . Absolute Knowledge is Absolute Power!

தூது  - The Envoy

கடனறிந்து காலங் கருதி இடனறிந்

தெண்ணி உரைப்பான் தலை.  # 687

மு.வ : தன் கடமை இன்னதென்று தெளிவாக அறிந்து , அதை செய்வதற்கு ஏற்றக்காலத்தை எதிர்நோக்கி தக்க இடத்தையும் ஆராய்ந்து சொல்கின்றவனே தூதன்.

He is the best who knows what's due, the time considered well, The place selects, then ponders long ere he his errand tell. 

He is chief (among ambassadors) who understands the proper decorum (before foreign princes), seeks the (proper) occasion, knows the (most suitable) place, and delivers his message after (due) consideration.

NIFTY TREND

Nifty - The story repeats. Nifty is still in buy mode, but the increase is 30-40 points everyday where the option premiums are hiked in the last 30 minutes that too marginally. Last weekly expiry went off in expected lines. I have indicated 225 points from 12023. Check the close yesterday. It is 10 points above my expectation. 

Technical analysts say nifty is overbought and warn you to be cautious. But the fact of the matter is no one can stop nifty from kissing 12310/367. Till such time gap up,  holding the high and not touching the previous day low... all these things might happen. 

Today's range is 12225-12295. Bn 32150-32400.

Key numbers are 12223 Spot  ( 12238 in Futures) and in BN 32240 Spot ( 32289 in Futures).

Good Luck

கூடா ஒழுக்கம் -  Inconsistent Conduct

மழித்தலும் நீட்டலும் வேண்டா உலகம்

பழித்த தொழித்து விடின்.    # 280

மு.வ : உலகம் பழிக்கும் தீயொழுக்கத்தை விட்டு விட்டால் மொட்டை அடித்தலும் சடை வளர்த்தலுமாகிய புறக்கோலங்கள் வேண்டா.

What's the worth of shaven head or tresses long, If you shun what all the world condemns as wrong? 

There is no need of a shaven crown, nor of tangled hair, if a man abstain from those deeds which the wise have condemned.

NIFTY TREND

Nifty has been in the habit of making records. This time due to gap up opening for the past 6 sessions. And on no day it visited the previous day low. That indicates the undercurrent situation of bullish trend.   This was due to retailers shorting the index and buying PEs at the wrong time without understanding the levels and price action. 

Spend some time in understanding the index and do not fall prey in to the hands of novice who start experimenting their half cooked knowledge with your finance. 

Today's important numbers are 12158/12151/12131.30. These are the levels where you may expect reversal. Stop Loss for this is 12092. Target is 12368/457.  Grab CEs if you find the above levels and wait for our targets next week. 

Important number to watch for in futures is 12186 which holds the key.   On spot 12161.  You cannot get a free options trade advise better than this anywhere from any white collared professionals. Go in for a good trade, make good money and thank yourself for reading this advise.

Good Luck!

அறன் வலியுறுத்தல் - Assertion of the Strength of Virtue

மனத்துக்கண் மாசிலன் ஆதல் அனைத்து அறன்
ஆகுல நீர பிற.    # 34

மு.வ : ஒருவன் தன்மனதில் குற்றம் இல்லாதவானாக இருக்க வேண்டும். அறம் அவ்வளவே: மனத்தூய்மை இல்லாத மற்றவை ஆரவாரத் தன்மை உடையவை.

Do deeds of virtue now. Say not, 'To-morrow we'll be wise'; Thus, when thou diest, shalt thou find a help that never dies. 

Defer not virtue to another day; receive her now; and at the dying hour she will be your undying friend. 

NIFTY TREND

Nifty today opened near 12085 and within one hour of trade crossed the weekly opening number 12131 and there after 12158 was taken out in the last 30 minutes of trade setting a new high of 12182.80. It took 12 sessions to cross the previous high.  This new high need to be confirmed by nifty  holding 12092 on a weekly basis. 

After few sessions of consolidation, Nifty is all set to reach 12367/12457. 

Till weekly expiry chances of witnessing a huge fall or level of 12020 is very remote unless any negative cue happens. 

I expect today nifty to start with a mild negative bias indicating a range bound trade through out the day, with intra day high and low of 12199/12115.  

Critical number to watch in Nifty spot 12131.

Good Luck!

இகல் - Hostility

இன்பத்துள் இன்பம் பயக்கும் இகலென்னும்

துன்பத்துள் துன்பங் கெடின்.  #854

மு.வ : இகல் என்று சொல்லப்படும் துன்பங்களில் கொடிய துன்பம் கெட்டுவிட்டால், அஃது அவனுக்கு இன்பங்களில் சிறந்த இன்பத்தை கொடுக்கும்.

சாலமன் பாப்பையா : துன்பங்கள் எல்லாவற்றிலும் மிகக் கொடிதான மனவேறுபாடு எனும் துன்பம், ஒருவனது உள்ளத்துள் இல்லை என்றால், அது அவனுக்கு இன்பங்கள் எல்லாவற்றிலும் சிறந்த இன்பத்தைத் தரும்.

Joy of joys abundant grows, When malice dies that woe of woes.

 If hatred which is the greatest misery is destroyed, it will yield the greatest delight.

NIFTY TREND

On the first day of the week, Nifty opened with a healthy gap up but surrendered not only morning gains but also 50% previous day gains there by landing in a precarious situation.  Now only  a decisive close above 12103 can only lead to new ATH. 

Yesterday, the opening suggested no trending and we abstained from trading the whole day. 

The strategy you must adopt for the day is to go long only above 12103 for a target of 12147/225. And be short when you see 12023 is broken for a target 11946.

Be cautious in your options pick as today is also likely to be another range bound day looking at the options pricing. Intra day swing could be around 100 points for the day.

If you find Nifty around 11935-49, you must grab month end CE for multiple returns. 

Good Luck!

 மெய் உணர்தல்  -   Knowledge of the True

ஐயுணர் வெய்தியக் கண்ணும் பயமின்றே
மெய்யுணர் வில்லா தவர்க்கு.  # 354

மு.வ : மெய்யுணர்வு இல்லாதவர்க்கு ஐந்து புலன்களின் வேறுபாட்டால் வளர்ந்த ஐந்து வகை உணர்வும் முற்றப்பெற்ற போதிலும் பயன் இல்லை.

Five-fold perception gained, what benefits accrue To them whose spirits lack perception of the true? 

Even those who have all the knowledge which can be attained by the five senses, will derive no benefit from it, if they are without a knowledge of the true nature of things.

NIFTY - NEXT WEEK

Nifty has closed at a very critical point. We can rather call it a cat on the wall situation. Having climbed up so fast with gap up and not letting the index down for the past two days, the closing looks tricky. It could either be 12250 or 11935 in this expiry on spot and on futures 12280/11967.

Nifty spot closed very near to monthly buy entry level where as Nifty futures has closed above 12138 which was the Dec month high till 12th. This indicates positive bias but a close above 12196 confirms continuation of trend. We need to wait and see.

Most of the retailers have not participated in the rally as there has been no dips in nifty to give a chance for an entry. Adopt buy on dips if you see 11935 spot is on the screen, 11970 in Futures.

The price action in nifty suggests increase in VIX during the mid of next week indicating high volatility. It could be a big swing +/-   250 points next week in nifty. 

Be long only if a daily close is above 12158 and be short if and Only if you see an hourly close below 12081 - (spot) / 12116 ( future).

DO NOT CHASE NIFTY AND BANK NIFTY.

Good Luck!

அவை அஞ்சாமை -Not to dread the Council

பல்லவை கற்றும் பயமிலரே நல்லவையுள்

நன்கு செலச்சொல்லா தார்.    #728

மு.வ : நல்ல அறிஞரின் அவையில் நல்லப் பொருளைக் கேட்பவர் மனதில் பதியுமாறு சொல்ல முடியாதவர், பல நூல்களைக் கற்றாலும் பயன் இல்லாதவரே.

Though many things they've learned, yet useless are they all, To man who cannot well and strongly speak in council hall. 

Those who cannot agreeably speak good things before a good assembly are indeed unprofitable persons in spite of all their various acquirement.

NIFTY TREND

Nifty once again opened with 55 points gap up, surpassing 12018 being previous week close and never broke the lower formation till EOD.  It went on to clinch 12100, but shied away by 2 points and closed at 12086.  From lower low and lower high formation for 4 consecutive days, Nifty formed higher high and higher lows during the last 2 sessions indicating a total change in the scenario. The bias is positive.

Will there be a further rally towards 12250 or mild down side towards 11935 to take a breather after having a non-top rally of 266 points from the low of 11832. We are not soothsayers to predict the direction. With market direction indicating positiveness, one has to be bullish. But a close above 12092 would have been much comfortable to bet on CE. It didn't close above that on a weekly basis. That makes me more cautious.  

Monday's first 4 hours of trade to give the direction for the week till expiry. 

Have a Happy and eventful weekend!!

அலர் அறிவுறுத்தல் - The Announcement of the Rumour

அலரெழ ஆருயிர் நிற்கும் அதனைப்
பலரறியார் பாக்கியத் தால்  # 1141

மு.வ : (எம் காதலைப் பற்றி) அலர் எழுவதால் அறிய உயிர் போகாமல் நிற்கின்றது, எம் நல்வினைப் பயனால் பலரும் அறியாமலிருக்கின்றனர்.

By this same rumour's rise, my precious life stands fast; Good fortune grant the many know this not! 

My precious life is saved by the raise of rumour, and this, to my good luck no others are aware of.