EXPIRY WEEK - MOVE

Nifty has so far confined to a limited move on both  the sides, leaving the option writers in a profitable situation and all option buyers have their premium eroded roughly 65-70% if you look at the price of 11900 CE and PE traded on 1.11.19 high and close price on 22/11/19

                     

                                 11900 CE    11900 PE
                                                                                         

Price on  01.11.2019    214.90        203.60
Price on  22.11.2019      74.00          61.00
Erosion                        140.90        142.00
Percentage loss              65%           70%
 
                    

I have opted for 11900 strike price since previous expiry as well as Friday close is near 11900. If you are curious to know the maximum move of Nifty then the answer is 135 points on either side.  How? 

Simple . Add 74 and 61 being the close price. So either we may see 12050 or 11780. (Nifty Close 11914).

This suggests that crossing ATH of 12103 in the expiry is out of question unless nifty closes above 12039/50 during next week.

Again nifty close below 11878 leads to 11780 and a close above 11966 leads to 12050. 

The price action gives you the next move and all other indicators beat around the bush. I take price action as the best indicator after all everything boils down to money finally.

Good Luck!

PS: I again reiterate option segment is not a casino. It requires deep study and good pick where you are the decider. In casino you place the bet and someone spins the coin.  Do mail me for acquiring more knowledge on options segment if you are a learner.