This November month has been very peculiar where neither bull nor bear could benefit for the past 12 sessions as most of the days it closed very near to previous month expiry figure. Neither Bulls could take the market forward nor the bears pull it down. It was a tough see-saw struggle. With just 7 trading days to end this expiry it is very important to know the ups and downs possible.
The key numbers to be crossed to start a fresh rally is 11973.70 and 12034.20. On the downside, previous expiry close 11878 has to be broken to open the gate for down side up to 11703. So far nifty has fallen just 76 points in this month from its previous close of 11878 to 11802. Any dip towards 11850/703 cannot be ruled out before starting a fresh rally to cover the short position. The FPIs have gone short in Index futures and it was open till last Friday amounting to 42158 contracts.
If nifty closes above 12035 by this week end, then one should close all shorts and go for long for target of 12200/12402/478.
The index position is interestingly poised, always keeping the fingers crossed with regard to the move.
ALERT: It has been observed that some big moves are happening after 3 PM, exactly at 3.10 Pm taking the index to the opposite direction. Do not participate in such rallies as you are bound to lose premium due to adjustment in settlement price which is lower/higher than last traded price and secondly erosion of premium if nifty opens gap down or gap up. Keeping index in 30 points range for 6 hours and moving 60 points up or down is trick played to extract money from you by compelling you to enter in to trade unless you maintain a discipline of making use of such move with 25-30% profit target with no carry over.
Good Luck!
PS: One may reach me on narayanansrirangam@gmail.com for trade in option segment where technical skills are taught while you earn.
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