NIFTY TREND

When I saw how nifty closed yesterday and checked the high and low made during this month, I could see Nifty confined to a range of 236 points ( Low 11802 and High 12238).  The close was 11967, more or less the mid point and it sits like a cat on the wall. A jump on either side is possible. But the overall trend is intact with a positive bias. Heavy weigh index scrips viz., Reliance, SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Pharma scrips are extremely bullish. In short the index management is very well done to keep retailers guessing. 

My take on nifty is positive unless I see a weekly close below my numbers 11915/30850. Keep your hopes alive as long as these numbers are not broken and closed today.

I still remember a discussion had with my associate about Nifty crossing ATH before 15th of November and going beyond 12200.

I gave my verdict that ATH is a trump card in the hand of market movers. After seeing 1000 points rally in October, retailers were over enthusiastic and entered in to OTM options above 12k and waited for golden egg.  What I sai was, "Since they have bullish trend till Dec third week, there wont be a big hurry in surpassing the ATH, it could be only in the last week of November expiry or later".  This was a mind game which worked perfect. Still retailers are waiting for golden egg or at least an egg if not gold!

Again instead of any correction after 1000 points, nifty just halted at expiry level and made 150 points up and 70 points down. 

I am posting the chart of both 12000 CE and PE of November which gives more clarity.  In the chart both CE and PE are deviating from the weekly trend line with a wider gap. That makes neither CE nor PE to surpass the weekly line which may stretch down, yet prices are further drifting down keeping the gap wider.  

Unless Nifty makes a bottom and bounces back with 200-250 points next week, there could be nothing possible except disappointment to retailers who look at OTM CEs which are almost worthless now.

Options segment trade needs more alertness and entry only at right time, not believing in luck. I advise Options buying only after confirmation. Not based on emotions.

Please study the price action for that you dont have to have chart. An Excel is enough. 

Good Luck!